Towards Dynastic Politics ?

Kompas daily on its edition of October 21, 2008 wrote on its headlines an interesting phenomenon in Indonesian politics today. It is about dynastics politics in Indonesia. Kompas wrote that similar phenomenon take place in some countries like the Phillippines, Pakistan, India and even the United States. Indira Gandhi from India, the daughter of Prime Minister Nehru, proved to be a capable Prime Minister. So was Benazir Bhutto from Pakistan. Gloria Macapagal from the Phillippines is also a very capable President. The Indonesian case, however, is unique. Puan Maharani is the daughter of former President Megawati who is the chairwoman of PDIP, the second biggest party in Indonesia. Now Puan Maharani is number one legislature candidate from PDIP. There is no reasonable cause why she should be number one. It is clear that the real reason is because she is the daughter of the boss. There is a surprising similar phenomenon in PAN (National Mandate Party). Even the hardest critic to nepotism practices nepotism. Although Amin Rais is no longer the chairman of PAN, there is no doubt that he is still the king of the party. Surprisingly PAN has two sons of Amin Rais as legislature candidate. During the new order era Amin sharply criticized Suharto for corruption, collusion and nepotism. How is the posible consequences of nepotism to Indonesian politics ?

Amin Rais was the chairman of Muhammadiyya, the second biggest muslim organization in Indonesia. It is also called as the modernist muslim organization because its members and followers live in cities and sufficiently educated. They are also known as rationalist people. Muhammadiyya is also anti tradition so the influence of traditional values on its members are relatively limited. Traditional values like hereditary leadership has no meaning for them. In this perspective nepotism contradicts to rational consideration of meritocracy. Party cadres who have supported PAN for years may feel disappointed sincethe recruitment process is disrupted by nepotism. Therefore Amin's nepotistic actions may reduce support for him and his party in teh coming general election. Furthermore there are many Islamic parties like the fast-growing PKS (Social Justice Party) which may become an alternative to PAN in aggregating muslim's interests. PKS is more modern and better organized. There is no single central figure in PKS. In short, PKS offers something that modernist people want - a clean, professional, rational and reliable party which is based on islamic values and not nepotistic in nature. So it is most likely that a significant percentage of PAn and Amin's constituents will swing their votes to PKS in the coming general election. Consequently PKS will rise and PAN will decrease. If Amin decides to run for President, it is most likely that he will lose again.

Meanwhile Megawati's constituent has a very different characteristics from that of PAN. Most of them are not devout muslims plus non muslims. They are very incline to traditional values. Hereditary leadership, therefore, is one of its core beliefs. They believe that leaders are born, not made. They believe that the offfspring of a tiger will be tigers and the offspring of a cat will be cats. In this perspective Megawati is the best candidate for President just because she is a Sukarnoputri (the daughter of Sukarno, the former President). And Amin Rais is nobody because he is nobody's son. Consequently Puan Maharani most likely will get significant votes. Besides, there is also Puti Guntur Sukarnoputro, the grandaughter of Sukarno. PDIP will also reap significant votes. So from the perspective of increrasing potential vote, nepotism is an appropriate step. Since this action will disrupt recruitment procedure, some party cadres and constituent wil feel disappointed and may swing their votes to more modern parties.

On the other hand there is another segment in Indonesian society. They are the traditionalist muslims. They are loyal supporters of the Wahid dynasty. The former President Abdurrahman Wahid aka Gus Dur is the son of Wahid Hasyim, the minister of religious affairs under Sukarno. Gus Dur is also the grandson of Hasyim Asyari, the founder of Nahdlatul Ulama, the biggest muslim organization in Indonesia. Anyone who wants to become leader in this community must be descendant of the Wahid dynasty to win their support and respect. Modern muslim like Amin Rais will never win their respect and support. Therefore PKB, the party for traditionalist muslims must rely on the Wahid dynasty. Key leaders of the party must come from the dynasty. Otherwise they will lose in the election. Unfortunately PKB is split. The faction which is supported by the government and the election commision is led by Muahimin Iskandar. Consequently Gus Dur's faction cannot take part in the general election of 2009. Since Gus Dur is the real king of PKB it is most likely that PKB will lose a great significant number of its votes. They will either be abstain or cast their votes to anyone else depending on Gus Dur's order.

Golkar is the biggest party in Indonesian in the election of 2004. It is also a modernist nationalist party but also nepotistic and paternalistic in nature. No wonder that there are new faces in the legislature candidate's list who are family members of its elite. Dave is the son of Agung laksono, the cahirman of DPR (parliament). The son of President SBY is also a legislature candidate of Partai Demokrat (Democratic party).

As noted earlier dynastic politics is a common phenomenon in Asia. It has several advantages and disadvantages. For several parties like PDIP, Golkar, PKB and many others which rely their support on traditionalist voters, this method is very effective to find support and respects of their constituents. But for parties which rely their support on modernist constituents like PAN, thsi method will have negative effects. Their voters will most likely cast their votes to a better and more modern party. In either case, party cadres will be disapppointed and maybe they will leave or create conflict. Furthermore, this method give way to unqualified mediocre leaders. Selection and recruitment process is disrupted. There is no fit and proper test to become legislature candidate. World history has shown that even great empire rotted and stumbled because they were led by incompetent leaders who were not capable to meet the hard challenge of their empire.

In short, dynastic politics is growing in Indonesia. So is the threat not only to parties but also to the whole nation. If Indonesia is led by mediocre leaders then just wait for its time to fall.