SBY and JK in 2009 : Running Mate or Rival ?

Indonesian election campaign has come to the 4th month now. So far Presidential candidate have not decided their running mate. Some weeks ago President SBY told the public that he is ready for the next presidential election and he gave sign that he is ready to take JK as his running mate. His party, however, has not decided any running mate. Meanwhile JK also gave sign that he is ready to be SBY's running mate as vice president. But the situation is not that simple.

Partai Demokrat (Democratic Party) stated lately that they are open to any vice president candidate, not just JK. Meanwhile Partai Golkar (Golkar Party) also stated that they have not decided anything. JK told the press that they focused their effort to legislative election first before deciding any strategy for presidential election.

Golkar is the biggest party in Indonesia. In the election 0f 2004 Golkar was number one. They gained more than 21 million votes. This position certainly create ambitions for its members to run for presidential office. They think that they deserve to win presidential office. But JK on the last polls is always rank low as presidential candidate. He just does not sell. If he runs for president, it is almost certain that he will lose. So Jk is in an awkward position.

In the last meeting of Golkar party leaders hel lately in Jakarta, there ten names appeared on teh list for presidential candidate. They are : Aburizal Bakrie, the coordinating minister for welfare. Agung laksono, the chairman of DPR (parliament). Akbar Tanjung, the former chairman of Golkar, former minister of cabinet secretary. Fadel Muhammad, the governor of Gorontalo. Ginanjar Kartasasmita, the chairman of DPD (council of province representative). Then Muladi, the chairman of Lemhanas (educational institute). Priyo Budi Santosa, member of parliament. Ryamizard Ryacudu, the former army chief of staff. Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, the king and governor of Yogyakarta. Surya Paloh, a wealthy businessman, the owner of Metro TV and a number of newspaper. SBY, the incumbent. Sutanto, the former police chief. Syamsul Maarif, politician. The hardest competitor are Akbar Tanjung and SBY.

Although Akbar Tanjung is no longer in the leadership of Golkar party, many people believe that he is still very influential in the party. He still has many loyalist in the party and he has followers outside of the party. If he decides to run and he uses all his resources to support him, he still has chance to win.

Golkar's losses in many provincial and municipal elections over the past several years create disappointments about JK's leadership. There is no doubt that local party leaders are responsible for those losses but JK's role can be uestioned. At least JK's competitor has another ammunition to attack. If the disappointment spread nationwide among party members, his competitor like Akbar will be a serious threat for JK.

If JK can fully control Golkar so they have to decide him as a candidate, then they have to face another prolem. As the biggest party they deserve to run for president but unfortunately JK's rank is always low. Vice president is a more realistic target for him. And if JK decide to run with SBY, he certainly have to accomodate his constituent to ask for high condition to SBY. The uestion is : will SBY meet his demands ? If the condition is too high, SBY has to find another running mate which is not easy. Megawati and her party PDIP (Indonesian Democratic party of Struggle) will never accept any offer as vice president. She will run for president. But in case SBY find another mate from isalmic parties or nationalist parties, probably JK will get nothing.

Indonesian politics is very interesting these days. Political leaders like SBY, Amin Rais, Wiranto, Prabowo, and Megawati watch very closely on the last developments as they are on slippery road. Choosing a running mate is very crucial now. Just one blunder can make them finish. SBY will certainly run for president, his problem is finding a perfect mate that wil, support him. JK's position is uncertain whether to run for president or vice president. His party pushes him to run for president but his popularity makes it risky. In case he joins SBY again as vice president then his problem is controlling the disappointed members in his party from making a powerful coalition with his rivas like Akbar. A powerful coalition inside Golkar can overthrow him from party leadership at anytime.