PROSPECTIVE INDONESIAN LEADERS

The Indonesian Tempo magazine on its issue of 21 December 2008 wrote a special report on the rivalry for presidential office in Indonesia. Tempo quoted several polls on the issue which stated that the strongest opponent for SBY is the former president Megawati. Tempo quoted three polls by Indobarometer, LSI and Cirus. Since May 2007 SBY’s electability always stands out except in June 2007 when Megawati surpassed SBY. In November 2008 SBY’s electability is 36,99% while Megawati’s is 16,20%. So far political observers agree that they have the highest electability among other candidates.

Two crucial determinants are choice of vice president and correct issue. Up to now they have not decided their running mate. Tempo wrote that Megawati’s prospective running mate is Hidayat Nurwahid, Sutiyoso, Prabowo, Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, or Jusuf Kalla. Hidayat Nurwahid is the former chairman of Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (the Justice and Welfare party) and at present the chairman of Majelis Permusyawaratan Rakyat (People’s Consultative Assembly). He holds 40,21%. Sutiyoso, the former governor of Jakarta, holds 11,91%. Prabowo, former commander of army special forces and chairman of gerindra party, holds 10,01%. Sultan Hamengkubuwono X is the king and governor of Yogyakarta. He holds 9,87%. The vice president Jusuf Kalla holds 9,43%.

In my opinion since there are two major faction in Indonesian society – nationalist and muslim- Megawati’s best choice is a prominent leader of muslim party. The question is who is this muslim leader. It is not an easy question. Nurwahid must wait for approval from key figures of his party to become Megawati’s vice president. This approval is almost impossible because the Justice and Welfare party wants to run their own presidential candidate. Furthermore having a woman as president is not an interesting option for an Islamic party. If she cannot find a perfect running mate from Islamic parties, she must find other prominent leader.

Sutiyoso is also a strong and effective leader. He has proved his capability as the governor of Jakarta. But he has no party, no organization and no money. Although he is a retired army general he has no control over any influential organization. This means that he has no significant supporter.

Prabowo Subiyanto is a rising star in Indonesian politics today. As the former son in law of the former president Suharto he has big business that can support his candicacy. Money seems to be no problem to him. He runs sn organization HKTI (organization of famers and fishermen). Besides he has full control of Gerindra party. His ads on tv effectively increase his popularity. If his party can achieve 20% of support in the coming legislature election, he will refuse to be Megawati’s vice president.

Sultan Hamengkubuwono is a prominent leader from Golkar party. His position as the king and governor of Yogyakarta is very influential since Yogyakarta is very strategic and Javanese people is the major ethnic group in Indonesia. But his position as Javanese king may become his weakness. This factor makes his popularity among other ethnic groups remain low. In a recent meeting Megawati made a gesture that she will offer the position of vice president to him but so far there is no deal between them. The Javanese king is also known to be muslim but his relationship with muslim community is not strong. It is impossible to rely on him to rally support from muslim community. In addition the Javanese people are dispersed in many political parties and there is no loyalty based solely on ethnic ties.

Jusuf Kalla is the chairman of Golkar, the biggest party. He has big companies to support his party. He has many choices. He has better chance to become vice president again if he support SBY. So there is no reason at the moment for him to support Megawati.

Other candidate for presidential office are Amin Rais and Wiranto. But Amin Rais is only supported by a small part of muslim community. He rely to Muhammadiyya community. In 2004 the Muhammadiyya community supported PAN (National mandate Party). But now there is a new Islamic party – Partai Matahari Bangsa (Nation Sun Party) that try to find support from the same social base with PAN. So it is most likely that Amin’s supporter remain or even decrease.

Wiranto is the former chief of staff of the armed forces. He is the chairman of Hanura party. He has strong financial support. He has support from retired military personnel. But his popularity at the moment remain low.

Promienent figures in Megawati’s party – PDIP – quit the party and established a new party – Partai Demokrasi Pembaruan (Innovated Democratic Party). They run small but professional party. It is certain that they will decrease Megawati’s supporter.

Last but not least, today there is no support from political situation to Megawati. Unlike ten years ago when political pressures to Megawati created sympathy frojm the public, today people think that Megawati is an incompetent candidate.

Megawati tries to win public support by choosing an issue of ‘expensive basic needs’. She claimed that her party focuses to this problem. But recently SBY decreased the gas price. Perhaps he hopes that this decision will increase his popularity.

Although Megawati is the most serious contender for SBY those factors created obstacles rather than support for her. Maybe her best role today is as a mentor to the best cadres of her party.