TWILIGHT FOR JUSUF KALLA ?

The Indonesian press write about controversial issues of the SBY – JK relationship these days. Mubarok, the vice chairman of Demokrat party told the press lately that his party has not decided to the vice president candidate because they are not sure whether Golkar party can win in the April legislature election. He estimated that Golkar will get only about 2.5%. Golkar leaders including its chairman Jusuf Kalla who is the Indonesian vice president reacted. They expressed strong concern to Mubarok’s comment. Later Mubarok told the television that he never made any such statement. He said that his statement was incorrectly cited by the press. President SBY on Tuesday February 10th hold a press conference. He told the press that he had warned Mubarok and that his party never have any intention of harassing Golkar party. Further he said that so far the relationship of the two parties is good.

This fact once again reveals a problem faced by Golkar and Jusuf Kalla. Golkar might face an internal conflict while JK may expect the beginning of the end of his political career. Golkar is in an awkward position. In 2004 Golkar remained the biggest political party. This position make Golkar members and elite think that Golkar should have presidential candidate of its own. But the problem is its top leader Jusuf Kalla, who is also Indonesian vice president, is not a popular figure. Latest poll indicated that his popularity and so his electability is very low. Tempo daily on February 10, 2009 quoted a poll by Lembaga Survey Indonesia conducted in September 2008. First rank is Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, the king of and governor of Yogyakarta and a member of Golkar leadership. He got 4% of votes. Jusuf Kalla ranks second with only 2% of votes. While the former top leader of Golkar, Akbar Tanjung also got 2%. LP3ES conducted its survey on December 2008. They indicated that Sultan Hamengkubowono X got 6.66% while Jusuf Kalla got only 3.76%. But LP3ES also revealed in his survey that Jusuf Kalla is the most popular candidate for vice president. He got 17.2% while Sultan HB X got 12.6%, Akbar Tanjung got 7.7% and Agung laksono the chairman of parliament got 3.8%. LSI conducted his survey again on December 2008. This time Sultan HB X got 5%, Jusuf Kalla only 2% and Akbar Tanjung got only 1%.

Those figures mean that Jusuf Kalla is in difficult position. It means that his best and only chance is becoming vice president to SBY. It is almost impossible for him to become vice president of other candidate. For SBY and Demokrat party, on the other hand, chances are almost limitless. SBY holds an ace card. At present he just wait and see the developments of events. He is waiting for the result of legislature election held in April. He needs a strong and loyal vice president candidate to support him. Some observers said that the finance minister Sri Mulyani is one of the candidate. Jusuf Kalla, however remain SBY’s best candidate because he has a strong party but he is not popular. So it is relatively easy for SBY to control him while JK has no choice but to obey SBY. JK realizes that his chance to become president is like a glass on the edge of a table, so he does not want his party to hold a convention to find a presidential candidate.

Golkar’s position does not satisfy its elite. They are unhappy with this embarrassing situation so they react. Akbar Tanjung who is the former top leader of Golkar several times commented about Golkar. He told the press that Golkar should hold a convention. JK strikes back. He said that there is no need for Golkar to hold such a convention because he does not have any legal problem. In the past, he said further, Golkar had to hold a convention because its top leader, Akbar Tanjung had a legal problem. Furthermore Golkar’s candidate general (ret) Wiranto lose in the presidential election. But Akbar Tanjung replied that there is no corelation between his legal problem with the convention. He said that the convention is a way to improve Golkar’s image and to show that Golkar is pro reform movement. He urge Golkar not to avoid such a convention.

Sultan HB X on October 2008 held a traditional gathering in front of his palace in Yogyakarta. He stated that he would run for presidency. Maybe this is an expression of his disappointment to Golkar because the door is closed for him to become presidential candidate. Without convention there will be no presidential candidate from Golkar. The door is closed for all members and leaders of Golkar party.

Other disappointment for Golkar’s elite and members are the facts that Gokar’s cadres losses in many local elections. Over the past four years there have been numerous losses of the party cadres in provincial and local elections. In addition there serious threat from new parties like Hanura and Gerindra. Hanura party is a new party led by the influential General (ret) Wiranto, the former armed forces commander. Gerindra party is led by Liutenant general (ret) Prabowo Subianto, the former commander of the army special force Kopassus. Both generals are so popular and influential that they will surely attracts a great number of voters. Since their supporter mainly come from the same background with Golkar, it is almost certain that they will reduce Golkar’s constituents. Furthermore Prabowo’s ads on tv are very effective to enhance his popularity.

Losing control in many provinces and districts and the rising threat from Prabowo and Wiranto will definitely reduce Golkar’s vote in the coming elections. This fact will improve elites disappointment in the Golkar leadership. This disappointment may lead to efforts to overthrow JK from the party leadership. Akbar’s statement in the press is undoubtedly his efforts to rally support from inside Golkar. With the growing disappointment inside the party, his appeals may be impressive for them.

If Golkar got little votes in the April election, then Demokrat party maybe will consider other figures as vice presidential candidate. So JK is in serious threat. This is a difficult time for him. Maybe this is the beginning of the end of his political career.